Labour romps into poll lead

With YouGov reporting that Labour is now 14% ahead of the Tories in its latest opinion poll it would be tempting for Labourites to get carried away thinking of victory in a 2015 general election. It might also be tempting to note that Labour is now ahead on "handling the economy". Tempting too to note that Ed Miliband now has better, or least worst, personal ratings that David Cameron.

Of course as "they" say, it is a Snickers not a sprint and the real test will come in three years time. At the moment though it shows that Labour is starting to reap the reward of not being the Tories or the Lib Dems. What matters for Labour is if this is the start of a longer term trend. If so it looks promising though I'd still warn that it is insufficient to expect to win by hoping that the other side mess up. It isn't enough. That will only lead to either defeat or another hung parliament.

Some things have changed recently. Miliband is performing with more confidence. His media appearances are more frequent and more assured. The real test will be whether people start to give him credit for making the right (and popular) call on the key issues as they arise. He has done so without credit on bank bonuses and phone hacking. If he can close that gap and build a coherent and appealing alternative Labour stands a good chance.

YouGov's expert Peter Kellner speculates that the Tories are still the likely winners of the next election, though the prospects of that happening could diminish if the coalition continues to struggle.

That the outcome and both political and economic landscape are so unclear makes predictions almost irrelevant as so much will change in the next three years. Will that also include our leaders?

Ken cuts Boris poll lead to 2%

With reports today that Ken Livingstone has cut Boris Johnson's poll lead to just two percent, I took a look at the history of these polls in the lead up to May's election.

You can see that we're now within the margin for error and that while Johnson has kept his neck in front, Ken is snapping at his heels as we have just two weeks to go:

With Labour having a strong lead over the Conservatives nationally and more so in London, it remains to be seen whether Ken can take advantage of that and get himself back into City Hall.

Boris Johnson ignores the suburbs & Ken gets a kicking

Further news of Boris Johnson ignoring his fans in the London suburbs fails to have dented his popularity. At a time when the Tory Party is consolidating a lead over Labour in the opinion polls despite doing lots of unpopular things, mayoral candidate Johnson is following suit. The latest mayoral opinion poll puts him ahead of Labour rival Ken Livingstone on both first and. crucially, second preferences.

An example of Johnson's "relaxed" attitude to his suburban vote was demonstrated by his ignoring of a 3,000 name petition against plans for a high rise development on top of Twickenham station. He approved the development, despite Richmond Council, run by the Tories stating that they believe in "low density" developments. Johnson himself has opposed/said what he thought people wanted to hear Richmond Council's planned development of the nearby riverside side as being "inappropriate" for the area. He can't have it both ways.

Or can he? Just like the Tories nationally, saying and doing unpopular things seems to only increase their poll position. YouGov's poll today put Johnson ahead, 54% to Livingstone's 46% in the race for mayor. Today's Guardian ICM poll also put the Tories ahead by three points over Labour, with 39%. Perhaps this suggests that while unpopular, the Tories are trusted more than Livingstone and Labour more generally at the moment.

Polls and election results often come down to gut feel and who looks more like a leader than what a candidate is actually proposing to do. Both Johnson and Livingstone have as many fans as enemies which means there will be more changes in support right up to election day, with both bucking national (Tories more popular than Labour) and local (Labour more popular than Tories in London) trends.

Three Tory graphs

After yesterday's disappointing growth figures that showed the economy hasn't grown at all in the last six months, opinion polls continue to show Labour in the lead and strong disapproval for the government's work.


Courtesy of Mark Ferguson at Labour List

Labour by default

Labour's lead in opinion polls remains consistently at a minimum of five points over the Tories with the Lib Dems around or below 10%.



Looking back over the polls between Labour's disastrous 1983 election and resounding defeat in 1987 shows a similar pattern. A year after the election Labour were consistently ahead of the Tories but the failure of the party to earn the trust of voters saw this gradually eroded by the 1987 election day. The same thing happened again between 1987 and 1992. Until Ed Miliband starts to get a strong and positive recognition from voters I fear that 2015 may lead to a similar result as 1987 or 1992.

It feels a bit like the 1980s at the moment. An unpopular Tory government, cuts, protests and a dodgy economy. Miliband's job is easier than Kinnock's though as there is no major internal party strife to deal with. It is an opportunity and a crucial one for the country at a time when the Tories are getting cockier by the day with Climate Change minster Greg Barker saying the current government's cuts are what "Thatcher could only have dreamed of." That's very different to the official line and faux sombre faces of George Osborne and Danny Alexander every time they announce more cuts - this is sad and bad but necessary. Miliband needs to make people realise his feelings are real.

Lib Dem bashing: they only have themselves to blame

Nick Clegg shall be hoisted by his own petard. He doesn't want students to graduate with £20,000 of debt. He certainly agrees with that, students will be in at least £27,000 of debt thanks to him. It is so easy to watch video after video of Nick Clegg telling us all before the election of how he wanted to help students and to bring in a new, open politics. It hasn't really happened like that has it?





The Lib Dems are currently on 9%, behind "other."

Labour ahead again

After the Independent, YouGov/Sun both put Labour ahead of the Tories in the opinion polls recently, The Guardian's ICM poll has also given them a slender lead.

Aside from appearances at Prime Ministers question time we've seen very little of Ed Miliband as yet. That he finds himself in a slightly advantageous poll position could result from several factors. The first is that not having Gordon Brown in charge seems to make Labour more popular/less unpopular. Not being the Tories helps too.

Until Ed Miliband's reign begins to take shape in public - and it hasn't yet - the main story is the demise of the Lib Dems. This was widely predicted at the outset of the coalition and the prophecy of many is being borne out. The third party's support is now the lowest among under 24s, the same group that supported them most strongly at the election only a few months ago. The Lib Dems are paying the price for campaigning on a single issue, student tuition fees, then dropping their core pledge as soon as they gain any power. The party was clearly to the right of where many (mistakenly) thought they were, repeatedly banishing their left wing policies and of course electing a proto-Tory in Nick Clegg as their leader.

After yesterday's showcase interview with The Guardian I'm looking forward to Ed Miliband making further dents in the Tories position. His strategy seems to be to re-build in-party morale first before turning outwards to the Tories. Nothing sorts party morale out like taking control of the media agenda and kicking the unpopular Tories.

Labour sustain lead over Tories

Labour lead over Tories holds

Labour has maintained its opinion poll lead over the Tories, despite doing very little of note as Ed Miliband gets his feet settled in under his desk.

Having spent several years helping my clients understand data about their reputation I can safely say that a graph showing an upward trend is definitely a good thing in this context.

Sunday poll boost

The latest YouGov poll puts Labour (again) ahead of the Tories. ComRes for The Independent also puts Labour ahead. the first time the party has been ahead in that poll since Gordon Brown took charge.

We could see a rise in cynicism over the next few years. The Lib Dems profited in the last decade by ypresenting themselves as the only party honest enough to say what people needed to hear on Iraq and student tuition fees. The wheels have fallen off very quickly once they have had a sniff of power. Much like my own experience of a Lib Dem council in Islington. If a party that made such sway of a single policy trashes it as soon as they get in government what hope does anyone have of believing politicians any more?

The NUS planning to campaign against all Lib Dem MPs. This week's protest showed that the youngsters haven't become cynical and do still care. I was warmed by that. It showed that the cuts won't be easy to implement.

The Tories are little better than their coalition partners. Cameron made much of cutting back on special advisers. He has done that but only by employing a raft of Conservative Central Office staffers in the civil service anyway. This isn't new politics, much more like old politics. It just got interesting again, just like the 1980s.

Labour poll position holds, Lib Dems nosediving

YouGov today put both Labour and Tories equal on 40%. Before Ed Miliband has really started to forge his own path and identity this shows there is great potential for surging into a healthy lead as the Tory cuts take hold. For this to happen Labour quickly needs to agree policy positions and media messages to clearly communicate the optimistic, positive alternative

Lib Dems would only get 11 MPs at this rate. Whenever there is a negative announcement it is always made by a Lib Dem or a Tory and a Lib Dem. Anything the Tories are confident they won't take heat for they announce alone. The continuing poll bashing the Lib Dems are taking shows that the Tory strategy of making their coalition partners take the hit for unpopular decisions is working. At this rate the Lib Dems would even lose seats if we had full proportional representation.

Labour in the lead

Today's ComRes poll for The Independent shows Labour in the lead over the Tories. While this makes me happy it doesn't mean a thing as there won't be another election for almost five years. What it shows is that before he has even done anything, Ed Miliband has a great opportunity. Post-Brown people are obviously liking Labour just that little bit more. Clear and consistent positive messaging from Labour can help to consolidate this.

Interesting nuggets from the research show that only 60% of those who voted Lib Dem only six months ago would do so again. 27% of them would now vote Labour. Labour are equal with the Tories among men but ahead among women. I want to see much more of Yvette Cooper to see that lead maintained.

The real test for the coalition will come when cuts start to bite. The same polling company is running a weekly survey for ITV about the cuts specifically. Very few services or benefits have yet been taken away from people. As that happens Labour's lead must grow for it to take advantage in 2015...a long way off.

Opposition is still not enough

Just opposing the Tories' cuts won't be enough to propel Ed Miliband into Downing Street. Not being the Tories is helping slightly and not being Gordon Brown is too. Current opinion polls show Labour and Tories neck and neck with the Lib Dems dropping to pre-1997 levels. The government's approval rating is already negative demonstrating that perhaps 2010 was a good election to lose.

YouGov put both Labour and Tories on 40% each and Populous gives Labour a slight lead. If Labour's top team, and it has to be a team effort, can get the right messages across the Tories' popularity is likely to slide as their cuts come into force, and Labour's should increase.

The key for Labour is to get the right messages. It isn't enough to simply shout about the unfairness of cuts. Labour has to make it clear why the deficit exists and also what it would do about it. Doing things differently is important because many have pointed out that the spending review takes UK public spending "back" to the same levels as in 2006. We were fine in 2006 weren't we? It all depends. At the end of this four year cycle Britain's public spending might be at the 41% of GDP it was in 2006 but we won't be living in the same country any more. The spending review takes very different slices out of the cake than those that were added between 2006 and 2010.

Treasury advisor Colin Talbot points out that 41% of GDP is still 2% below the post-war average. We're looking at a Tory government that is becoming obsessed with the level of GDP spent by government. Margaret Thatcher tried and failed to cut it to below 40% and Cameron is aiming at the same target by planning to cut further after 2015.

Talbot argues: "Shrinking the size of the state is a perfectly legitimate policy aim – but it is not one anyone voted for at the last election because none of the three main parties put it forward". 


The politics has to be right, the messages have to be consistent and well targeted. Opposition alone isn't sufficient.

Tory lead cut after Brown's speech

According to YouGov the Tory lead over Labour has been cut to 7% following Brown's speech. As I stated to LBC's Nick Ferrari this morning, the real test is whether Labour can keep this level after Cameron's speech to the Tory conference last week.

The Tories will get widespread positive press from a friendly media, so I'm more interested in seeing the polls next week. Nevertheless, some mildly good news.

Winning back the agenda

Listening to PMQs today, Brown is obviously trying to pain his government one one of substance over Cameron's focus on style. This has long been the big contrast between the two leaders but I worry that Cameron's lack of rigour isn't concerning the electorate while Brown is constantly reacting to negative events. These events are nothing like the cash for questions or arms to Iraq scandals of the mid 1990s Major government, yet they are not helping.

Labour is offering policies for positive change in Britain, like yesterday's announcement of the Childrens' Plan. This seeks to tackle the root causes of anti-social behaviour, crime (and the causes of crime?)and obesity and builds on the positive contribution of Sure Start.

Opinion polls have been better but they are sitting in the mid 30s and according to the Electoral Calculus (an amalgamation of all recent polls) the Tories are looking at a majority of 8 at present. There isn't an impossible mountain to climb, but we need to win back control of the political agenda otherwise nobody will be interested in our achievements.

Britain backing Brown

So the polls show Labour still in the lead and the public backing Brown as the best leader by far. This makes great Saturday morning reading.

Cameron needs to respond and offer leadership and an eye catching policy that will attract voters. I'm still not convinced he has what it takes to haul the Tories out of their malaise. Tax cuts? Give me a break. Not a tax one though. Though this seems to be what he thinks will get Britain back on the Tories' side. I'm just waiting for a backlash in the Tory Party about Europe then the set will be complete, tax cuts and Europe. Will they ever learn that repeatedly beating the same drum in 1997, 2001, 2005 and now 2007 might not work?

£21bn of public service cuts would be a disaster at a time when investment is finally bringing services up to scratch. John Redwood's policy review claims that together with tax and regulation, poor infrastructure is a problem in the UK. How does he propose that we invest in new infrastructure with less tax revenue when what we have isn't enough?